A wave of disadvantage across NSW: Impact of COVID-19 recession
Summary
Equity Economics has delivered new analysis of the impact of Covid-19 on NSW.
The report was prepared for the NSW Council of Social Services (NCOSS) with the support of the Community Housing Industry Association NSW; Domestic Violence NSW; Youth Action; Homelessness NSW; and Shelter NSW.
The report provides estimates based on original analysis, Australian and international research on the impact of rising unemployment on disadvantage across NSW regions.
Findings
The report models the impact of rising unemployment by June 2021 when JobKeeper has ceased and if JobSeeker returns to its previous rate. It looks at how this will affect progress with key targets set out in the NSW Premier’s Priorities. Findings include:
Areas with the highest levels of unemployment by June 2021 include Newcastle and Lake Macquarie (12.3 per cent), Coffs Harbour – Grafton (12.2 per cent), Sydney – City and Inner South (11 per cent) and Sydney – Parramatta and Sydney – Blacktown (10.6 per cent).
The number of 20-24 year olds in NSW experiencing high or very high mental distress will increase by up to 16.8 per cent.
Higher unemployment alone will lead to rates of domestic violence increasing by up to 5.5 per cent in some regions of NSW, with COVID-19 lockdowns already having caused alarming spikes in reports to police.
More than 9,000 more people in NSW will be homeless – a rise of 24.0 per cent in the homeless population. Some regions will see a 40.5 per cent increase in homelessness.
The number of NSW families experiencing housing stress will increase by more than 88,000 or 24.3 per cent.
There will be 27,447 more children at risk of neglect across NSW, a 24.5 per cent rise due to increased unemployment.
Mean NAPLAN scores in Year 9 maths will fall by 23.5 points (3.5 per cent) in 2021 compared to 2019, with some areas improving and other areas, including those with a high proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students falling more than 6 per cent.
The report also examines how the community sector in NSW is responding to the increase in demand for services, finding the need for critical intervention increasing significantly.
Read the full report
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